A Must-Read Guide to Blackjack Odds and Probability


If you are planning to give online casino games a try, then online Blackjack can be an excellent option for you. While playing Blackjack at Online Casinos UK is quite simple, this game provides the player with the best odds compared to other casino games. However, by familiarizing yourself with the Blackjack Odds and Probability, you can increase your winning chances. Well, this article will help you with that. Read on and explore all the required information about the probability and odds. Besides, you will also understand how probability and bets affect the odds. 

Blackjack Probability vs. Odds- Understand The Difference

Even though probability and odds are used interchangeably in Blackjack, there are some differences that you should know. Let’s have a look. 


 In Blackjack, probability is utilized to inform players how probable it is one can win the round. To get the probability, players generally divide the approximate chance of winning the game by all potential chances. Let’s understand this with a simple example. 

If you have 5 cards and need to pick one, then the probability of winning the game would be 1 divided by 5, i.e., 20 percent.  

Blackjack Odds: 

In simple words, odds just represent the chance. Odds are calculated by utilizing the losing and winning probability. For example, if there are 5 options with 1 choice, the odds would be 4/1. Here, 1 is your winning chance, and the losing chance is 4. 

The odds don’t show your chances of winning the game, but they also let you know the payout you can earn. To know the winning chances, you need to use the probability. 

History of The Blackjack Odds

The well-known mathematicians John Scarne and Julian Braun were the first people to study and observe the probabilities and odds of this game. Using their skills, they managed to find out how certain moves can change the game direction, and the odds can be calculated to some extent as the game follows a certain pattern. 

The strategies and discoveries made by these mathematicians became famous across the world and greatly contributed towards the game. The history of Blackjack also includes more mathematicians and gaming experts who have helped players to understand more about the game, like Peter Griffin, Harvey Dubner, Stanford Wong and more.                                                                                        

Understand Various Types of Blackjack Odds and Probability

You will find different types of Blackjack at online casinos and the winning odds will vary based on the Blackjack type you are playing. Keep reading to explore more about this.

  • Classic Blackjack

This version of Blackjack has 8 decks of 52 cards, and the probability of winning in this game is around 4. 75 percent. On the other hand, the probability of getting 1 to 16 is around 38.7 percent and for No Bust, it is 26.5 percent. 

  • European Blackjack

Different from Classic Blackjack, in European Blackjack, 2 decks of cards are used. Each deck has 52 cards. In this version, a dealer will not hit after getting a soft 17. The probability of winning a European Blackjack round is around 42 percent. Well, the thing that makes it a profitable choice is the lower house edge, i.e., 0.39 percent. 

  • Face Up 21

As the name suggests, in this type of Blackjack, you can see cards of dealers. Here, the probability of winning the game can be less or more than 42 percent. However, the house edge in this game is quite high, i.e., 0.85 percent. Some beginners prefer to go for this as it helps then create a better gameplay strategy by knowing the cards of the dealer. However, if you want to make more money with this game, then this may not be an ideal choice for you. 

  • Free Bet

In this game, you can make some additions based on the game rules for free. For example, you can double or split your cards without getting charged. Here, the housed odds would be around 1 percent or 3/2. 

Odds Can Vary With Bets or Options- Explore Here 

Apart from these standard Blackjack types, there are some other bets and options that can influence the odds. You will find these at every online casino. So, we would suggest you get familiarize with this. 

  • Insurance

The Blackjack Insurance bet option is available in every variant of Blackjack, and players use this as a side bet. With this, you can protect around 50 percent of your bet. If you go through the rules and reviews of players, you can find that the insurance odds can pay out at 2/1. Besides, the average odds of a dealer making Blackjack would be 9 to 4. 

  • Splitting

If the game allows splitting, then players can split their two first cards between two hands. Here, they need to place a bet on the other hand. Here, the odds of Blackjack winning can be  3/2. 

  • 21+3 Side Bet

One of the most popular Blackjack side bets is 21+3. It involves your two cards and the dealer’s upturned card. It can pay out for various combinations. Have a look:

Flush- Pays around 5:1

Three of a Kind- Pays around 30:1

Straight- Pays 10:1

Suited Triple- Offers 100: 1

Talking about the house edge, it will vary based on the number of decks used. For 4 decks, it would be 8.78 percent. If you are playing with 6 decks, the house edge can be 7.14 percent. For 5 and 7 decks, it can be 7.81 and 6.29 percent, respectively.

  • Double Down

Double down in Blackjack offers you a chance to double down or increase your initial betting value by 100 percent. However, you shouldn’t use this all the time. There are certain circumstances when this can be helpful. For example, you can opt for this when the dealer’s card is two-six, and you have a hard nine in your hand. A hard nine can be formed by combining two cards but not using an ace, for instance, 4 and 5, 3 and 7 or 3 and 6. When the dealer has a 5, 6 or 4, then the odds of the dealer going bust would be 42 percent. If the dealer has 2 or 3, then the odds would be around 36 percent. 

Let’s Know The Three Common Probability Laws

In Blackjack, the probability is based on three rules, i.e., Complementation, Addition and Multiplication. 

As per the complementation law, the chances of something not arising means 1 minus the chances of something happening. If there are a total of 13 cards in a single deck, the chances of getting a club suit card are equal to 0.25 (13/52), and the probability of getting clubs is 0.75 (1- 0.25).

Coming to the addition law, here the probability of getting a card of the club suit or a deuce is equal to 0.3076 { ( 4 / 52 + 13 / 52) – 1 / 52 = (17 / 52 – 1 / 52) = 16 / 52)}.

As per the multiplication law, the outcome that will occur can be influenced by the outcomes that have occurred already. Let’s understand this with an example. In a 52-card deck, the number of ten-value cards is 1. So, your probability of getting one is 16/52. The chances of getting another ten will go down to 15/51 as you have 15 tens in 51 cards. The same goes for getting your 3rd and 4th ten. Here, we can say that the probability of receiving 3 tens from the pack is 0.0253 or 2.53 percent { (16 / 52) x (15 / 51) x (14 / 50) }. 

Return-to-Player Percentage in Blackjack

The RTP is different from the house edge. It shows the expected return you can get in the game. If the RTP is 96 percent, then you will get 98 if you bet 100 when you are with the game. The return to player of Blackjack, when using the basic strategy, can be around 99.5 percent. On the other hand, the house edge is around 0.5 percent. The reason behind this is online Blackjack utilizes a Random Number Generator and the outcome of the hands will be unpredictable and random. Compared to other games, the online Blackjack has the lowest house edge. 

Winning At Blackjack- Some Tips For All Online Blackjack Lovers

  • Before you join the live online Blackjack table, prefer to learn the basic strategy and follow it.
  • If the total of your first two cards is 11, then you can double your bet, and you can prefer to split 8 and aces. 
  • Don’t split a pair of 5-value cards or 10-value cards. 
  • European Blackjack and Classic Blackjack are good for first-time players. 
  • After gaining knowledge about the game, try to go for some side bets to increase your winning amount. 

Closing Thoughts

We can say that it is not that challenging to understand the odds and probability in Blackjack, and this is something that makes this game one of the best online casino games. Once you understand these terms, you can open up the door to more profitable gambling. If you have understood these things, then go on and play Blackjack at reliable online casinos now.